Farmer’s Almanac Says Harsh Winter Weather is Coming to WA

Since I was young, I’ve noticed the Farmer's Almanac, or the other competing publication, the Old Farmer’s Almanac, in my grandparent’s living room. The longtime publications have made long-range weather predictions for years, typically given a year in advance. We just found their Pacific Northwest weather prediction for the remainder of December and the beginning of January. 

How does the Farmer’s Almanac make its long-range weather predictions?

The publication's forecaster has been predicting weather for the past 30 years. They’d have switched forecasting personnel years ago if they were consistently off. 

The Farmer’s Almanac bases its 30-day and 90-day weather forecasts on five factors:

• The solar activity cycle
• The motion of the moon
• Tidal action
• Equator wind activity up in the stratosphere
• Lunar cycles and how they lined up with past weather patterns

What is coming down the pike for us in December?

The Farmer's Almanac released its winter forecast for the Pacific Northwest. Here’s the expected weather - for the remainder of December and the first part of January.

• December 8th - 15th - Clouds & showers, turning to rain and the west side and snow, east of the mountains by late in the week - into next weekend.
• December 16th—23rd: Clouds and showers are possible, with heavy rain in Western Washington, heavy snow in the mountains, and some snow east of the Cascades by the end of the week.
• December 24th - 31st - Fair skies, dry conditions, and cold temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. By the last weekend of the year, expect more moisture to hit the Pacific Northwest and head east.
• January 1st - 3rd - The return to colder temps

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How accurate is Farmer's Almanac?

They claim their forecasts are nearly 80% accurate. Climavision says it's closer to flipping a coin—more like 52%. They argue that today's weather forecasting has made forecasts from the Farmer's Almanac irrelevant - but many, including my grandparents, still trust the publication for its winter predictions.

We could be lined up for a white Christmas here in North Central Washington if they're correct.